Thursday, 23 November, 2017

U.S. carbon resurgence fuels growing global demand

Oil market could tip out of balance on rising non-Opec production Oil price edges lower on anticipated US production rise
Jo Caldwell | 15 November, 2017, 00:24

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $56.72 per barrel, down 4 cents.The dips came after both crude benchmarks early last week hit highs last seen in 2015, but traders said the market had lost some momentum since then."Oil is fairly calm".

"The IEA slashing its oil demand growth forecast for this year and the next has dampened some of the bullish sentiment prevailing in the market", Abhishek Kumar, Senior Energy Analyst at Interfax Energy's Global Gas Analytics in London. But the oil market isn't tightening as quickly as once anticipated, the IEA said in its monthly oil-market report.

Reducing the use of fossil fuels is a key demand from activists and many governments taking part in the global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, this week.

Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US.

The IEA also today released its latest World Energy Outlook, in which it said global oil demand will fall modestly due to the rise in electric cars.

In Abu Dhabi on Monday, the UAE Minister of Energy and Industry Suhail bin Mohammed Faraj Faris Al Mazrouei, said that oil producers were expected to unanimously extend a production cut accord later this month, but its duration was still under discussion.

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Fitch Ratings said in its 2018 oil outlook that it assumed 2018 "average oil prices will be broadly unchanged year-on-year and that the recent price recovery with Brent exceeding $60 per barrel may not be sustained".

The IEA also revised down its 2018 oil demand forecast for Brazil from 3.15 million bpd to 3.13 million bpd.

The largest disruptive force to supply will be shale production in the United States - the IEA estimates USA crude oil will reach peak output in the 2020s of around 17m bpd. However, this is expected to cut only 2.5 million barrels per day, or about 2%, off global oil demand by that time.

However, even rapid growth in the electric vehicle fleet would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on oil consumption for passenger transport until the mid-2020s, it said.

Overall global energy needs are seen rising more slowly than in the past, but are still projected to expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040.

"With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world's consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil", the IEA report stated.

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